Daily Archives: March 14, 2011

UAH Temperature Anomalies Following Predictable Pattern

In this post I show one simple  and 2 multiple regression models to assess the role of time, El Nino – La Nina SSTA and volcanic activity (SATO) on UAH global temperature anomaly trends. The 3rd model provides a reasonable  approximation of the actual UAH oscillations over the 1979 – Feb, 2011 period.

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This analysis is similar to previous temperature anomaly regressions (here, here, here) that I have done.

The simple trend line regression shows the overall trend is upward, however, there are several oscillations that the linear trend misses.  The yr_frac and Nino34 regression improves on the linear model, however, it undershoots in the early 1980s,  overshoots in the 1992-1994 period, periods following significant volcanic activity.

The yr_frac, Nino34 and SATO model improves the fit in the early 1980s and 1992-1994 period and is slightly better in the 1998 and 2010 El Nino periods.

The 3rd model matches the observed 2010 El Nino – La Nina oscillation pretty well so far, indicating that the 2010 – 2011 UAH anomalies are following a predictable pattern.

Comparison of UAH Anomalies During 1998 & 2010 El Nino – La Nina Oscillations

In this post, I show the UAH global temperature anomaly traces during the 1998 and 2010 El Nino – La Nina oscillations.

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UAH_NINO34_cyclesThe 1998 UAH anomalies were higher in the peak El Nino period than the comparable 2010 El Nino peak period.  The anomaly drop off from the peaks have been comparable so far.  It will be interesting to see how the current La Nina progresses compared to the  12 month depressed anomaly period following the 1998 El Nino.