Here is a quick update on how the 2010-2011 El Nino – La Nina cycle compares with several previous cycles. Click to Enlarge
The 2010-2011 cycle seems to be following a similar path to the 4 previous cycles shown in the chart. The 1973, 1983 and 1998 El Ninos had higher SSTAs than the current 2010 cycle. The current La Nina is close to the La Nina lows in 1998-99 and 1973-74. The 1973 and current cycles have followed a similar path so far.
It looks like the current La Nina conditions may be near the bottom. We may see Nino 34 SSTA’s start to rise in the next few months.