Category Archives: Climatology

Tracking El Nino Forecasts

nino34

 

Anthony Barnston: Chief Forecaster – International Research Institute for Climate and Society (5/15/14)

 

Kevin Trenberth: 

(5/12/14)

(4/18/14) 

 

NOAA : Weekly ENSO Update

 

Robert Scribbler

6/2/24: 

May Likely to Break Global High Temperature Record as El Nino Conditions Strengthen in Pacific

This gif shows progression of warm water across equatorial Pacific with weekly profiles of ocean water temperature anomaly. X axis is longitude and Y axis is ocean water depth – meters. Warm water is progressing from west to east and rising. As warm water rises to surface, it releases ocean heat to the atmosphere.

5/22/14 Global Sea Surface Temperatures Increase to Extraordinary +1.25 C Anomaly as El Nino Tightens Grip on Pacific

5/16/14 Deep Ocean Warming Coming Back to haunt us 

3/25/14 Monster El Nino Emerging From the Depths

 Dr. Jeff Masters

(5/12/14)

 

David Appell – Quark Soup

5/13/13

El Nino Forecast for Summer 2014 Looking Stronger

WSI Blog has a post by Dr. Todd Crawford that forecasts a strong El Nino later this summer. Based on analogs, he anticipates that it could be comparable to the mega El Ninos of 1997-98.

elnino

 

The 1997-98 El Nino event had a major impact on global temperature anomaly trends.  A major 2014-2015 El Nino could provide strong evidence in the “gloabal warming stopped in 1998″  debate.

 

Global Sea Level Rise and El Nino – La Nina

Here is an informative interview with NASA’s Josh Willis about global sea level rise and El Nino – La Nina.  I first saw the video on Zeke Hausfather’s  YALE Forum on CLIMATE CHANGE & THE MEDIA

Climate Charts, Data and RClimate Scripts

While there are many online climate data resources, the source data files are in numerous data formats, presenting a challenge to climate citizen scientists who want to retrieve and analyze several climate indicators at the same time.

I have been working to develop a consolidated open access data file and RClimate scripts that users can use to retrieve climate data, conduct their own analysis  and generate their own climate charts.  My goal is to make it easier for climate citizen scientists to get their hands on the data in a simple,  usable format (CSV). This post updates the status of my RClimate efforts.

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Arctic Oscillation: 1 – Trends (Update 1)

arctic oscillation (AO): 1 -  trends Since 1950

In this post, I begin a series on the Arctic Oscillation (AO) .  This post  presents a chart of monthly AO Index from 1950 to the present and introductory information on AO .  I will be updating this chart each month as NOAA updates the data series.  A link to the RClimate script that downloads the source data from NOAA is provided.

Update 1: Reader skrafner noticed that my plot legend indicated a 60-day moving average while the script actually calculated a 60-month moving avg. I’ve updated  the script and plot.

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Mapping Temperature Anomalies with R: UPDATE 12/17/13

In this post I show how to map NASA GISS’s  2×2 degree temperature anomaly data using R mapping tools. Rather than rely on a single value to reflect monthly global temperature anomaly, this map shows the anomalies  in each of the 16,200 cells in a  2 degree lon/lat grid. This lets us see the details that make up the global mean, we can see which areas are warmer and which are cooler.  I provide a link to my RClimate script and data file so that interested R users can make their own maps.

Here’s my R Climate map of NASA’s July 2010 2×2 degree data set. (Click map to check out the enlargement )

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RClimate Tools for Do It Yourself Climate Trend Analysis

In this post I introduce my RClimate functions which allow R users to easily download and plot monthly temperature anomaly data for the 5 major global temperature anomaly data series: GISS, HAD, NOAA, RSS, UAH.

Consolidated LOTA Data File

In this previous post I introduced my global  Land Ocean Temperature Anomaly (LOTA) monthly csv file that Excel and R users can download to conduct climate trend analysis.

In this post, I introduce my RClimate.txt R scripts that users can source() to simplify access to the LOTA data.  Please note that I have used the “.txt” descriptor  for my file type to avoid download problems encountered when I use the standard R file descriptor.

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Do It Yourself Climate Trend Analysis

This post describes my consolidated global temperature anomaly CSV file that users can easily download to Excel or R to do their own trend analysis.

Do It Yourself Global Temperature Anomaly  Trend Analysis

As I wrote in my July 10, 2009 post,

“There are many blogs and web sites (small sample: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) with multiple opinions on global climate trends. Some sites are data oriented and others are opinion oriented. What is a [data analyst] charter to think?

My advice, take a look at the data for yourself. As an Excel or R charter, why not analyze it yourself to get a better appreciation for what is going on.

To help you get started, I’ve developed a consolidated monthly CSV file that presents  the 5 major global land and ocean temperature anomaly data series: GISS, NOAA, HADCrut3, RSS and UAH.

Here’s the link to my consolidated temperature anomaly CSV file.

I update the consolidated file regularly by downloading the latest agency source files so that the consolidated file includes all source agency data revisions. This way you can get the most up-to-date temperature anomaly data without having to reformat/ manipulate the 5 individual files.

Comparing 2010 and 2007 Arctic Sea Ice Extent Trends

See my Arctic Update Page for daily updates on Arctic Sea Ice Extent

In this post I present a chart that tracks the daily Arctic Sea ice Extent (SIE) for 2007 and 2010. I chose 2007 as the comparison year because it had the record minimum and I wanted to be able to directly compare 2010 with the record minimum year to get a quick comparison of 2010 with the minimum year.

I will update this chart regularly on my Arctic Update page to help Arctic Sea Ice observers  get a quick sense of the 2010 – 2007 comparison.

2010 – 2007 Comparison Chart

Here’s my R based 2010 – 2007 Arctic SIE extent chart. (Click image to enlarge)

I’ve added a number of features to this chart to help me quickly asses the situation:

Arctic Sea Ice Extent Update – June, 17, 2010: Update 2

See my Arctic Update Page for daily updates on Arctic Sea Ice Extent

We are at the half way point in June, 2010 and the Arctic Sea Ice Extent is melting at a record-breaking pace. Please note I have adjusted my post based on JAXA’s 6/15/10 data update.

I have added a new page – Arctic Update where I will regularly have the latest JAXA day of year chart, my month to date data table and my month to date Sea Ice Extent chart. 6/17/10

Here’s the JAXA day-of-year chart which clearly shows how ASIE has dropped dramatically in May and so far in June. The mid June levels are the lowest in JAXA’s 2003-2010 period.

Here’s my JAXA data trend chart which shows the daily June values for each year. The blue dots reflect the daily values and the red dots reflect the ASIE values for the latest data date for each year. The green line is intended to assist reader in comparing the same values for the same data in each year.

Clearly the June 2010 ASIE is dropping rapidly, with the 6/15/2010 value significantly less than the values on this data in previous years.

This table provides additional information on the magnitude of the June ASIE decrease.

June, 2010 started at the lowest point in the 2003-2010 period, 32,000 km^2 less than the previous June 1 low in 2003.  So far in the first half of June, 2010, ASIE has decreased 0.898 million km^2, beating the previous full June record of 0.797 million km^2.  The mid June 2010 rate of  decrease has been 60,000 million km^2 per day, considerably greater than the previous maximum mid June rate of 53,000  in 2008. (Corrected 7/7/10 based on Derek McCreadie comment)

Details on my RClimate script are available in this previous post.