In this post I show one simple and 2 multiple regression models to assess the role of time, El Nino – La Nina SSTA and volcanic activity (SATO) on UAH global temperature anomaly trends. The 3rd model provides a reasonable approximation of the actual UAH oscillations over the 1979 – Feb, 2011 period.
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The simple trend line regression shows the overall trend is upward, however, there are several oscillations that the linear trend misses. The yr_frac and Nino34 regression improves on the linear model, however, it undershoots in the early 1980s, overshoots in the 1992-1994 period, periods following significant volcanic activity.
The yr_frac, Nino34 and SATO model improves the fit in the early 1980s and 1992-1994 period and is slightly better in the 1998 and 2010 El Nino periods.
The 3rd model matches the observed 2010 El Nino – La Nina oscillation pretty well so far, indicating that the 2010 – 2011 UAH anomalies are following a predictable pattern.