UAH Channel 5 Anomaly Trends

Lucia at The Blackboard has on on-going bet where readers submit predictions of the monthly UAH anomaly, the April bet post is here.

Lucia does some very interesting climate analysis, some of her charts, however,  can give me a headache if I stare at them to long. Let’s look at her April UAH bet chart(Warning, may give you a headache if you look for too long)

What can we say about this chart? Well, um, ah, – - -  let’s be positive:

  • It was done in Excel. The ugly grey shading gives Excel away every time
  • It’s colorful, yes, very colorful
  • It has lots of data, yes, lots of data
  • It is clearly labeled

Since Lucia is running a contest in which she is also a contestant, I wonder if she has a disincentive to make the trends clear and understandable? Maybe that’s why I find it so hard to see a pattern in the jumble of colors.

Since I’d like to participate in Lucia’s contest and try to avoid headaches, I decided to make an R based chart of the UAH Channel 5 trends. Here’s my chart: (Click to enlarge)

I’ve tried to show both the long term trend of monthly average values as well as the daily values for the current month.  I’ve highlighted the latest available reading as well as the month to date average.

I’ve placed my bet. Feel free to use my chart to help you make your bet. And may the best chart win the bet.

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2 responses to “UAH Channel 5 Anomaly Trends

  1. Pingback: Tracking Long Term and Recent UAH Channel 5 Anomally Trends « Climate Charts & Graphs

  2. I still think what would be useful is a comparison of the average based on the UAH website and the final posted number – is there a constant offset? A sinusoidal offset depending on month? A gaussian offset centered on zero?

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