El Nino Forecast for Summer 2014 Looking Stronger

WSI Blog has a post by Dr. Todd Crawford that forecasts a strong El Nino later this summer. Based on analogs, he anticipates that it could be comparable to the mega El Ninos of 1997-98.

elnino

 

The 1997-98 El Nino event had a major impact on global temperature anomaly trends.  A major 2014-2015 El Nino could provide strong evidence in the “gloabal warming stopped in 1998″  debate.

 

Climate Charts & Graphs Cleanup Progressing

Just a quick not to my blog visitors that I have been working to update my blog to show current climate data charts and to address missing charts and files.

I’ve been keeping many of my source data files, R scripts and images on another web site. this has made the routine maintenance more cumbersome than necessary.

My plan is to have all of my climate chart material self contained in one blog rather than store it on another web site. The transfer process will be causing some hiccups along the way.

I have removed a few older posts to simplify my blog maintenance. I still have some links to blank pages that I will try to cleanup in the next few weeks. If you find a missing data file or plot, let me know and I’ll try to get it restored.

Arctic Amplification – November, 2013: Updated 12/20/13

Updated (bold italic) 12/20/13 to reflect comments from David. 

NASA’s GISS temperature anomaly map (link) for November, 2013 is reproduced  below. It uses a 2×2 degree grid cell for the globe. 

GISS_anom_map_11_13

The November, 2013 GISS temperature anomaly shows the critical global pattern that is important to recognize because it is fundamental to understanding why global warming is so dangerous.

First, the overall global anomaly for November, 2013 was 0.77 degrees C.  The 2 degree latitude zone mean anomaly varied from a low of 0.068 to a high of 2.33. So the mean global anomaly does not tell the full story, we need to look at the geographical distribution to really understand the global warming pattern.

As we examine the geographical distribution of the November, 2013 anomalies, we see that they tend to increase as we move from the equator toward the poles.  This pattern,  called polar amplification, means that the polar regions, particularly the Arctic region, warms much more rapidly than the overall global mean.

I developed this chart in R to display the mean zonal anomalies by 2 degree latitude zones to help me visualize the November, 2013 anomaly patterns.

art_amp

Here is the R Script that I used to produce the chart.
#### GISS Temperature Anomaly - Zonal mean by 2 degree latitude
##K O'Day, Dec. 18, 2013
##############################################################################################################################
 link <- c("http://data.giss.nasa.gov/tmp/gistemp/NMAPS/tmp_GHCN_GISS_ERSST_1200km_Anom11_2013_2013_1951_1980/nmaps_zonal.txt")
 mon <- "November, 2013"
 title <- paste("Mean Temperature Anomaly by 2 Degree Latitude Zones\n", mon, sep="" )
 note_1 <- "GISS Temperature Anomaly\n (1951-1980 base period)"
 df <- read.table(link, skip=4)
 par(las=1, oma=c(3,1,1,1), mar=c(5,5,3,1), ps=11)
 names(df)<- c("Zone", "Anom")
 #png(file="C://R_Home//Charts & Graphs Blog//RClimateTools//a_Revised_Blog//art_amp.png", bg="white")

 plot(df$Anom, df$Zone, xlim=c(0,3), ylim=c(-90,90), type="l", axes=F, xlab="Mean Anomaly for Zone - C",
      ylab = "Latitude",  xaxs="i", yaxs = "i", main=title)
   axis(1, at=NULL)
   axis(2, at=c(-90,-60,-30,0,30,60,90))
   abline(h=40, col="green")
   abline(h=0, col="darkgrey")
   abline(v=0.77,col = "black" )
   abline(h=64, col="blue")
   text(2.5, 43.5, "Philadelphia, Pa.", cex=0.7)
   text(2.7, 67, "Reykjavík, Iceland", cex=0.7)
   text(2.25, -20, note_1, cex=0.75, adj=0)
   rect(0.6,-65,0.85 , -50, col = "white", border = "white")
   text(0.77, -60, "Global Mean @ \n0.77 C", cex=0.7)
 mtext("D Kelly O'Day - http://chartsgraphs.wordpress.com", 1,1, adj = 0, cex = 0.8, outer=T)
 mtext(format(Sys.time(), "%m/%d/ %Y"), 1, 1, adj = 1, cex = 0.8, outer=T)
# dev.off()

Pardon My Absence

I’ve been busy on other projects and have not been maintaining this blog.  For the past 2 years I’ve been working on local (Philadelphia) environmental issues and simply did not have the time to keep up with my climate charts.

I am reactivating this blog with a renewed sense of purpose. I will be cleaning up the blog, prioritizing and streamlining the site. Please bear with this clean-up effort.

Romney’s Views on Coal: Bad for Americans’ Health, the Enviroment and the Climate

Let’s look at a recent Romney campaign ad to get a sense for his views: Continue reading

Global Warming and 2012 Presidential Election

Mitt Romney and Barak Obama’s views on global warming, in their own words. Continue reading

Animated Images of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Decline

This post shows how to download and animate a series of Arctic Sea Ice Extent images using R and the animation package.

Continue reading